UKIP share of the European vote increased by over 10% from their 2009 polling, indicating the disillusionment of many with both conventional politics and the European experiment. Running on a ballot of solely these issues, UKIP have managed to capture this fervor for
political gains.
The Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, have suffered heavy defeats running in support of Britain's inclusion in Europe. A view which when combined with their unpopular role in the coalition government has caused a hemorrhaging in their electoral backing, reducing them to a rump of only one singular MEP. This has left the Liberals as the 5th major party in the United Kingdom, after finishing even behind the Greens for the first time since 1989. This has lead to numerous calls from within the party for the resignation of Party leader and deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, who has responded by saying that he will not quit.
The victory of UKIP in this election comes as no great surprise, but the fallout from their success still remains to be seen. The United Kingdom followed a trend seen throughout much of Europe, as anti-European and proto-fascist right wing parties gained significant ground, and in many cases control of individual nations European representation. The election of these parties seems counter-intuitive to many, as often their members aim only to disrupt the process of the European parliament. By making the parliament slower and less effective, these parties seek to undermine its importance and hasten changes.
What seems clear at this point is that there will be a major realignment of alliances and grouping within the European parliament in the coming weeks, this is highlighted by the major success of the Front National in France under Madame La Pen. The Front National are said to be interested in forging a partnership with UKIP in Europe but their former fascist links are publicly of distaste to Farage's party, although it is more likely a fear that their name will evoke too many sour memories of Britain's own racist National Front of the 1970's.
UKIP has already made it clear that they refuse to work with the National Front in Europe, but have yet to say where their allegiances will indeed lie in this "New Europe", but the question must be raised as to how long a European parliament dominated by anti-Europeans can surely last?
British Prime Minister David Cameron made it clear today that Britain's membership will not be up for debate until 2017, as previously outlined by the government, despite calls form within his own party to bring the date forward one year to show their commitment to a referendum. Mr. Cameron, who believes in Britain's place in Europe, argued that leaving the date where previously set means that a necessary time frame is left for a greater period of renegotiation.
This was a strong stance held by Mr. Cameron who has received his own fair share of pressure within his own party after these election results. This is the first ever election where the Conservatives have slipped into third place and this has lead to some Tory backbenches to call for a election pact with UKIP for next years General Election. This was swiftly rejected by the Conservative leadership, with Chancellor George Osbourne spelling it out in no uncertain terms that if you want a Conservative led government after the next election, then you vote Conservative. Remarking that only two men can be Prime Minister after the next election Mr. Cameron and Mr. Miliband, not Mr. Farage.
Regardless of leadership after the next election the probability of a referendum is looking all the more likely, despite Mr. Miliband's supposed opposition to such a vote only as far back as March. The overwhelming public support of UKIP at these European elections makes it clear that the majority want to have a discussion on Britain's continued membership and it seems only logical that in order to garner more support for the General Election that Mr. Miliband will inevitably concede this.
Recent polls on voting intention in the case of an in/out referendum on Europe have found strong support for the "stay" vote, with a Yougov poll from 20th-21st May putting the difference at 5% in favor of staying, where as a IpsosMori pole from 10th-12th May puts the difference as high as 17%. These numbers however are highly susceptible to change as throughout 2013, 27 individual poles highlighting just this question returned 26 results in favor of leaving the European Union.
The future of Britain in Europe therefore still remains delicately in the balance, the success of UKIP in the polls indicates a strong surge of anti-European sentiment among the British public, but until such a time as a referendum is granted, the lasting extent of these hostile feeling cannot truly be known.
Until Then.
Sources:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/470947661512982528/photo/1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership (I Know, I Know...Don't Use Wikipedia Kids.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27567744
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